Crypto in 2025: Why This Cycle Isn’t Playing Out Like the Last One
Let’s face it – 2025 hasn’t unfolded the way crypto investors had hoped. Historically, about six months after a Bitcoin halving event, we’d expect fireworks: new all-time highs, parabolic rallies, and a roaring altcoin season. But instead, we’re seeing something quite different – a painful correction across altcoins and a sense of hesitation in the market.
In this breakdown, we’ll explore what’s next for crypto following Bitcoin’s latest golden cross, the implications of global M2 money supply trends, and whether 2025 still has explosive upside potential, despite macroeconomic headwinds like quantitative tightening (QT) and elevated interest rates.
The Golden Cross: What It Means for Bitcoin’s Next Move
A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Traditionally, this is considered a bullish signal, hinting at strong upward momentum. Conversely, a death cross – when the 50-day dips below the 200-day – usually signals trouble ahead.
Bitcoin recently formed another golden cross on the daily chart. So, what typically follows?
Looking at recent history:
- October 2024: Bitcoin saw a 9% dip post-golden cross, followed by a powerful 30% rally.
- February 2023: A 9% initial drop was followed by a 20% surge, then a dramatic 20% correction, and eventually, a jaw-dropping 55% recovery.
- October 2023: This golden cross had minimal correction, and Bitcoin climbed steadily for weeks.
Even with the most recent golden cross, Bitcoin experienced:
- A 5% correction, followed by a deeper 10% pullback.
However, as seen in the past, these corrections have often been launchpads for massive rallies. In fact, each golden cross over the last few years has led to significant upside within weeks. While weakness often follows the initial signal, bullish momentum typically builds up and explodes after.
If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could be gearing up for a strong 30–50% rally in the next few months.
Global M2 Money Supply: A Macro Indicator for Crypto Momentum
Global M2, representing the total money supply in circulation, is another major factor influencing crypto performance. Analysts have observed a strong correlation between global M2 reversals and Bitcoin price action.
In 2025, the market pullback coincided almost exactly with a reversal in global M2 trends. Now that M2 appears to be bouncing back and testing previous highs, optimism is returning.
What’s more intriguing: Bitcoin seems to be leading global M2, not following it. If this trend continues, it indicates that Bitcoin may be an early indicator of broader financial market recovery.
If M2 breaks past resistance, it could validate the idea that Bitcoin’s next leg up is imminent. The previous M2 surge aligned with explosive crypto gains, and current price action suggests we’re entering a similar setup.
This reinforces a bullish thesis: a macro-level uptrend might soon carry Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
High Interest Rates and QT: Are They Still Holding Crypto Back?
Despite historically tight monetary policy, crypto has proven it can thrive. The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to shrink its balance sheet through QT and maintain high interest rates, yet Bitcoin still managed massive runs in the past under similar conditions.
Let’s rewind:
- In mid-2023, Bitcoin traded around $26,000, eventually climbing above $70,000, even as the Fed kept rates above 5% and aggressively reduced liquidity.
- Similarly, Ethereum soared by over 160%, going from around $1,500 to more than $3,900, in the exact same economic environment.
These data points suggest that crypto doesn’t necessarily need a dovish Fed to perform well. While low rates and QE are strong tailwinds, they’re not required for parabolic growth, especially during bull cycles.
So, can crypto boom in 2025 despite QT? Yes.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown resilience in high-rate environments. Even if the Fed doesn’t pivot this year, the structural momentum behind crypto could still lead to massive price appreciation.
Ethereum as a Leading Indicator for Altcoins
Ethereum often acts as a proxy for altcoins. If Ethereum is strong, altcoins typically follow.
Ethereum’s recent price action mirrors that of Bitcoin:
- After bottoming near $1,500, ETH surged to nearly $4,000, marking a 160% gain during a time of tight liquidity and high rates.
This bullish move suggests that altcoins still have room to grow, even without macroeconomic shifts.
Now, ETH is consolidating. If it holds current support levels and resumes upward momentum, we could witness another wave of altcoin rallies, especially in late summer to early fall 2025.
Historical Patterns and Market Psychology: A Bullish Setup?
Historically, the most explosive moves in crypto happen during the final few months of the bull cycle. Think back to late 2017 or Q4 of 2021 – massive surges occurred in September, October, and November.
If 2025 follows this blueprint, we’re currently in the “boring middle phase” where corrections shake out weak hands before the real fireworks begin.
Combine that with:
- Golden cross momentum,
- Rising M2 indicators,
- Crypto’s proven strength under high-rate environments,
… and you get a recipe for late-year madness.
In other words, August, September, and October could mark the final run-up of this market cycle, potentially pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum into price discovery zones.
Why the Smart Money Is Still Bullish on 2025
While 2025 hasn’t delivered the typical post-halving rally yet, there are plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic:
- Bitcoin’s golden cross signals a high-probability rally.
- Global M2 trends are reversing upward.
- Crypto has proven it can outperform even under high-interest rate conditions.
- Historical patterns favor explosive moves in the final quarter of bull markets.
- Ethereum’s strength sets the stage for an altcoin rally.
If you’re waiting for the perfect macro setup, lower rates, quantitative easing, dovish Fed, you might miss the move. Because crypto doesn’t wait for permission. It runs when the pressure builds – and right now, the pressure is building.
This market might just be in the eye of the storm, preparing for its most dramatic phase yet. Whether you’re an investor or just watching from the sidelines, keep your eyes on the charts—and your strategy ready.
