A New Beginning for Bitcoin? The Cycle May Have Barely Started
What if everything we think we know about this cryptocurrency cycle is wrong?
What if, despite the excitement over the spot Bitcoin ETFs and political momentum like the “Trump pump,” the real Bitcoin bull run hasn’t even started yet?
After Bitcoin’s drop from $109,000 to around $74,000, it’s understandable that many investors are feeling the sting. Altcoin holders have especially endured months of harsh corrections. But personal emotions don’t dictate market realities. What matters is hard, objective data, and the cold numbers might be telling us a very different story than popular sentiment suggests.
Is it crazy to believe that the most explosive phase of this Bitcoin bull run is still ahead? Or are we simply too jaded after months of brutal market action? Let’s explore the hard evidence before jumping to conclusions.
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator: A Bullish Signal on the Horizon
The first piece of compelling evidence comes from the famed Pi Cycle Top Indicator — one of the most reliable historical tools for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks.
Historically, this model has nailed previous cycle tops with stunning accuracy. The way it works is simple: it tracks when the shorter-term moving average (the orange line) crosses the longer-term moving average (the green line).
Currently:
- Orange line: ~$91,000
- Green line: ~$155,000
In past cycles, as Bitcoin entered its parabolic growth phase, the orange line rapidly surged upward to cross the green line, marking a market peak. If this pattern repeats, we could see a cycle top within the next six to nine months, perfectly aligned with a December 2025 timeline, consistent with Bitcoin’s classic four-year cycle theory.
Critically, if the green moving average is at $155,000, Bitcoin would need to rally significantly above that level for the Pi Cycle Top Indicator to trigger again.
Will Everyone Sell When It Happens?
Skeptics argue that if the Pi Cycle Top Indicator is so well-known, everyone will sell early, rendering it useless. History suggests otherwise. In previous cycles, even seasoned investors doubted its signals, believing that this time would be different.
Mass psychology often leads to greed triumphing over caution, causing market tops despite widely available warning signs.
In other words, expect a repeat of history.
Confirming Evidence: CryptoCon’s Analysis of Moving Averages
For additional confirmation, we turn to data scientist CryptoCon, who offers a unique take on the Pi Cycle model. Instead of just watching for the cross, he measures the gap between the two moving averages once Bitcoin breaks its prior all-time high.
Past data shows:
- 2017: 46% gap
- 2020: 48% gap
- Current: 56% gap
A wider gap than previous cycles implies that Bitcoin still has substantial room to grow before reaching its true peak.
Simply put: we’re not even close yet.
And again, the magic number here seems to revolve around the $155,000+ zone.
The Golden Ratio Multiplier: Another Model Screams Bullish
Another highly regarded metric, the Golden Ratio Multiplier, backs up the bullish outlook.
This tool layers a series of multiplied moving averages and removes outdated ones, adjusting for Bitcoin’s diminishing returns each cycle. When Bitcoin reaches certain moving average lines, it often signals a major cycle top.
In the 2025 cycle:
- The critical moving average (the “red line”) is around $155,000.
- Bitcoin touched this zone early during the ETF hype in early 2024 but has not yet fully completed its parabolic move.
Thus, while Bitcoin’s initial rally was impressive, it likely wasn’t the true top.
Following the halving event, further momentum could push Bitcoin much higher, validating the model’s projections.
Other similar indicators, like Crypto Consumption Golden Curves, suggest an even higher target of around $186,000 by late 2025.
Pure Multiple Model: A Massive Range for Bitcoin’s Peak
The Pure Multiple model is another tool worth understanding for serious Bitcoin investors.
This model compares Bitcoin’s price movements with on-chain spending behavior.
In every past bull cycle, Bitcoin’s “pure multiple” line surged above the red threshold during major blow-offs.
In 2025, if history rhymes again, the Pure Multiple model suggests Bitcoin could peak anywhere between $130,000 and $300,000.
Yes, that’s a wide range — but it underscores the vast upside still on the table.
Many prominent analysts, including myself, lean toward a more moderate $200,000 to $250,000 range as a realistic cycle top.
Money Flow Index Reset: The Final Green Light?
Yet another powerful signal comes from the Money Flow Index (MFI) Reset.
This indicator measures the amount of capital flowing into or out of Bitcoin markets.
When healthy, “outflow resets” happen without dipping below the critical midway threshold, it often precedes massive Bitcoin price rallies.
Good news:
- During the Bitcoin correction to $74,000, the outflow remained above the danger zone.
- Additionally, Bitcoin completed a perfect retest of the 50-week EMA – historically an ultra-bullish setup.
Every successful bounce off the 50-week EMA in Bitcoin’s history has preceded major parabolic moves higher.
Price Target Expectations: Could Bitcoin Hit $180,000 to $250,000?
Taking an average of all these models:
- Pi Cycle Top
- CryptoCon’s Moving Averages
- Golden Ratio Multiplier
- Crypto Consumption Golden Curves
- Pure Multiple
- Money Flow Index Reset
The consensus price target for Bitcoin by late 2025 hovers around $181,000.
And remember, that’s a 100%+ return from today’s prices.
Some scenarios could push Bitcoin much higher, especially if U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs gain more mainstream adoption, corporations continue adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, or geopolitical uncertainty drives massive demand for decentralized assets.
Altcoins Will Follow (and Outperform)
As Bitcoin surges toward a new all-time high, altcoins have historically outperformed Bitcoin dramatically.
- Ethereum might see moderate gains.
- Solana and other major altcoins could explode exponentially, delivering 3x–10x returns compared to Bitcoin.
- Emerging ecosystems like Base, Blast, or LayerZero-based tokens could deliver life-changing profits.
If Bitcoin climbs 100%, altcoins could climb 500% or more during peak FOMO periods.
Stay Focused and Bullish
Despite the fear, uncertainty, and doubt that define every market correction, none of the classic Bitcoin top indicators have flashed yet.
The recent pullback appears to have been a standard mid-cycle correction, amplified by short-term economic and political concerns like tariffs and inflation fears.
However, the underlying macro, technical, and on-chain data remain incredibly bullish.
This cycle is far from over.
